13FL OW Evidence, not hype
Validation Current Confluence evidence pack for 13FLOW. This page is intentionally conservative: it separates mechanical dataset readiness from any alpha or investment-performance claim, so a reviewer can see exactly what is ready and what still needs review.
Current status mechanical_evidence_ready_for_review_metrics_unreviewed
A 25-ticker mature 13F + Form 4 joined artifact is mechanically schema-valid and ready for human review, but metrics remain unreviewed and are not a public alpha or validation claim.
Public validation claim: false
Publishable as full validation: false
score_claim=ordinal_heuristic_not_probability_not_expected_return
125 feature rows
25 tickers
100.0% 60d return coverage
50.0% 60d hit rate
01 · Scope 25 liquid tickers with mature 13F plus Form 4 evidence.
02 · Gate Schema and row checks pass before any public claim.
03 · Metrics Descriptive results are weak or neutral, not promotional.
04 · Next Full-universe adjusted-price review remains the required artifact.
Mechanical Evidence Readable takeaway: the evidence pack is structurally ready for review, but it is not yet a published validation study.
Field Value Artifact status valid_minimum_schemaEvidence review mechanical_evidence_ready_for_reviewMetrics status minimum_schema_valid_metrics_unreviewedFeature scope 13f_form4_joinedRows 125Tickers 25Row errors 0Rows with Form 4 accessions 101Rows with open-market buyers 14Tickers with open-market buyers 920d forward-return coverage 100.0%60d forward-return coverage 100.0%120d forward-return coverage 100.0%
Descriptive Metrics These 60-day metrics are weak or neutral. They are useful as a review checkpoint, not as a performance promise.
Metric Value Split testModel full_scoreHorizon 60 trading daysn 113Rank IC -0.003655Permutation p-value 0.964072Top-bottom spread 0.026515Top-bottom spread CI95 -0.078722 -> 0.110038Hit rate 50.0%Mean forward return 0.5%
weak_or_neutral_descriptive_metrics; this is not a validated alpha, forecast, probability or expected-return claim
What this proves The local feature table is mechanically schema-valid. The 25-ticker artifact joins 13F and reviewed Form 4 accessions. Forward returns are complete for the 20d, 60d and 120d horizons on the mature window. The artifact is ready for human methodology review. What this does not prove It does not prove validated alpha. It does not provide a probability, price target or expected-return model. It does not cover the full historical universe. It does not complete price-source, delisting, liquidity, costs or no-lookahead review. How to use this page For analysts: use the validation boundary to decide how much weight to give a Confluence signal before reading the filings.
For reviewers: use the status, artifact hashes and source links as due-diligence evidence before relying on the data.
For operators: do not market output as validated alpha until the next artifact covers broader history, adjusted prices and no-lookahead controls.